By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Given our latest data-driven checks, we raise our Q2E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. by 60 basis points, to +4.6%, placing us 60 basis points above consensus (according to Consensus Metrix data) and also as the second-highest forecast in this regard on the sell-side. We believe McDonald’s continues to benefit for a number of reasons, some of which we pointed to in our May 6th report “April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…” — we encourage you to read that report if you have not yet done so.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) reported adjusted EPS of $0.14, surpassing our $0.11 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.11. Relative to our model, outperformance came from: (1) better-than-expected G&A/Revenues (12.1% actual vs. 12.7% estimated), (2) better-than-expected Cost of Sales/Sales (85.0% actual vs. 85.8% forecasted), (3) lower-than-projected Interest Expense ($29.1 million actual vs. $30.1 million projected), and (4) a somewhat more favorable tax rate than anticipated (20.0% actual vs. 22.5% forecasted). These positives were partially offset by some other factors, such as higher-than-anticipated Other Operating Expenses.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM
In our April 8th report “Tidbits re: Burger-Sector Same-Store Sales Trends, and SBUX,” we noted that “With March 2019 now in the rear-view mirror, we are pleasantly surprised that this month appears to have turned out very well for burger-sector same-store sales. In fact, based on our proprietary, data-driven checks, the midsingle digit number put up by U.S. quick-service burger chains for March 2019 looks like the best month in this regard since February 2016, for which some concepts (depending on their accounting methodologies) were helped by that month’s extra Leap Day.”
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