Modifying our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E from +1.2% to +1.8%. Our key takeaway: we believe that U.S. quick-service burgers chains in aggregate enjoyed their best same-store sales month during December 2018 since February 2016. The 60 basis-point increase in this index of ours is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the last half of November and all of December.

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Updating our Q4E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (Again)

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we once again raise our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E, this time from +1.2% to +2.4%. (In late November, we had already moved our Q4E index number from +0.3% to +1.2%, based on our checks regarding the first half of the fourth quarter.) Our latest increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the second half of November and all of December.

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DNKN DATA-DRIVEN CHECKS LEAD TO RATINGS CHANGE…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Based on our data-driven checks, we upgrade the shares of Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN) from Neutral to Buy. Our checks regarding the fourth quarter lead us to raise our Q4E same-store sales forecast for the core Dunkin’ U.S. business by 60 basis points, to +2.1%, which according to Consensus Metrix data becomes the new sellside high. Sell-side consensus is at +1.4% as of this writing.

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