We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral), Applebee’s (owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Buy]), Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated):
After today’s market close, Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral) reported adjusted fiscal Q1 2019 (calendar Q4 2018) EPS of $0.75, exceeding our $0.66 forecast and sell-side consensus (as measured by Consensus Metrix) of $0.65. Starbucks notes that this $0.75 figure “included a $0.07 benefit from discrete income tax items,” suggesting the EPS beat excluding these tax items was $0.02 versus our forecast and $0.03 versus consensus.
Ahead of Starbucks’ (SBUX; Neutral) planned fiscal Q1 2019 (calendar Q4 2018) earnings release planned for after the market close this Thursday (January 24th), we raise our fiscal Q1 same-store sales forecast for the Americas (and the U.S.) by one percentage point, to +4%, placing us above sell-side consensus (as measured by Consensus Metrix) of +3%. The raised forecast has the effect of increasing our Q1E EPS projection by one cent, to $0.66, also placing us one cent above sell-side consensus of $0.65. Our full-fiscal 2019E EPS forecast goes up by $0.01, to $2.66. Given this slightly higher anticipated base of earnings coming off of fiscal 2019, our fiscal 2020E EPS estimate rises by $0.01, to $3.01. We reiterate our Neutral rating on SBUX.