SBUX Lowering Estimates as China SameStore Sales Down by -78% in February

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 5, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $76.19) filed an 8-K which quantified some of the potential impacts on its business from coronavirus in China (a company-owned market for Starbucks). As a result, we lower our full-fiscal 2020E EPS estimate by -23 cents, to $2.80. And, given this lower base of anticipated earnings coming off of 2020, partially offset by 2021 potentially lapping some easy comparisons, we take down our full fiscal 2021E EPS forecast by -17 cents, to $3.25. We note the following:

SBUX (Post-Call) Fiscal Q1 Healthy, But Coronavirus Afflicting Fiscal Q2

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy) reported fiscal Q1 2020 (= calendar Q4 2019) adjusted EPS of $0.79, surpassing our $0.75 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of 0.76. U.S. same-store sales growth of +6% exceeded our +5% projection and sell-side consensus of +5%. Worldwide same-store sales advanced by +5%, matching our estimate and consensus.

SBUX Correlating U.S. Same-Store Sales and Growth in Starbucks Rewards

By Mark Kalinowski Published on December 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM

In theory, accelerating Starbucks Rewards (U.S. loyalty program) active membership should lead to better Starbucks U.S. same-store sales. But does it, or not? In our correlation of these two metrics over the last 16 quarters, we find that there is indeed a positive correlation.