MCD (Post-Call) Robust Q4 Results, But SG&A Will Weigh on 2020

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 29, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported Q4 EPS (excluding an $0.11 worth of income tax benefits due to new regulations) of $1.97, below our $2.00 forecast, but one cent above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.96. Closely-watched U.S. same-store sales rose by +5.1% in Q4, nearly matching our +5.0% projection, and coming in 40 basis points above consensus of +4.7%. Fourthquarter same-store sales for International Operated (+6.2% actual vs. our +5.5% estimate and +5.3% consensus) and International Licensed (+6.6% actual vs. our +6.0% estimate and +6.4% consensus) also came in above expectations.

DNKN (Post-Call) Not Spooked by a Favorable Q3 Tax Rate

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.90, surpassing our $0.81 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.81. We attribute about $0.06-$0.07 of the EPS beat to a better-than-expected adjusted tax rate (21.9% actual vs. 27.7% forecasted and 27.8% consensus).

SBUX Lowering Estimates as Starbucks Talks Tax Rate Share Repurchases China

By Mark Kalinowski Published on September 4, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today at a competitor conference, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy) made comments regarding the outlook for its tax rate, share-repurchase activity, and its China-related growth that cause us to update our model.