DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts for IHOP

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 7, 2021 at 4:02 PM

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +600 basis points, to -5.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -9.9%. Our increased forecast represents (inter-related) factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year family dining sector sales trends, (2) benefits from stimulus-related consumer spending in March, and (3) “spring fever” perhaps finding itself a little more in bloom than usual amongst consumers this time of the year, given all that has been battled over the last 12+ months.

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The Outlook for the Top 25 Fast-Casual Concepts in the U.S.

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 17, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Of the large sectors of the U.S. restaurant industry (quick-service, fast-casual, midscale/family dining, casual dining, and fine dining), the fastest-growing one yearin and year-out continues to be the fast-casual sector. In 2018, the fast-casual segment’s sales rose by +7.6% to $55.4 billion, now representing about 10% of the U.S. restaurant industry’s $556.4 billion in total sales. For 2019, Technomic projects that the fast-casual sector will expand by +7.3%, greater than its forecasted growth rate of +3.9% for the restaurant industry as a whole. In our view, fast-casual’s growth will continue to outpace that of the industry for years to come, due to the quality of the food offerings, the speed of service, and the relative discount that guests enjoy relative to much of full-service dining. That said, as the data in this report shows, the rising fast-casual tide is NOT lifting all boats, and we do not expect that to be the case going forward. Individual concepts and their various attributes (including the management of those concepts) continues to matter greatly. We note the following:

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Tidbits re PZZA, Top 25 Restaurant Chains, BLMN, and Luckin Coffee

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), the top 25 restaurant concepts in the U.S. (as measured by domestic systemwide sales), Outback Steakhouse (owned by Bloomin’ Brands [BLMN; Not Rated]), and privatelyheld Luckin Coffee:

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