WEN Changing Our Rating on Wendy’s to…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 4, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we upgrade the shares of Wendy’s (WEN) to Buy (from Neutral). The reasons for our upgrade include: (1) U.S. same-store sales trends that look better than the Street may expect (particularly for July, which may have positive implications for momentum for Q3 as a whole), (2) the possibility that the 5% or so of the Wendy’s worldwide store base that is company-owned produced higher-thananticipated restaurant-level margins in Q2 (and if so, what this may imply about the possibilities for such margins in Q3 and Q4), and (3) the recent nationwide launch of the Wendy’s Rewards loyalty program, which could help spur sales better than they otherwise would be through Q2 2021.

DNKN (Post-Call) Improving Sales Trends Closing More Low-Performing Units

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 30, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral, $71.68) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.49, beating our $0.46 estimate, and matching sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.49. Relative to our model, GA&/Revenues caused the upside (18.2% actual vs. 20.0% forecasted).

SBUX (Post-Call) June and July Sales Trends Better than Expected

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After today’s market close, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $74.64) reported fiscal Q3 (calendar Q2) adjusted EPS of -$0.46 — better than our -$0.63 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.62. In its June 10th business update, Starbucks indicated it was then targeting fiscal Q3 adjusted EPS of -$0.55 to -$0.70. Fiscal Q3 EPS coming in better than the high end of the target range relates to better-than-expected June same-store sales (for example, June U.S. same-store sales down by -19%).