We briefly note the following tidbits regarding burger-sector market-share trends in the U.S., Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), and The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral):
Based on our data-driven checks, we upgrade the shares of Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN) from Neutral to Buy. Our checks regarding the fourth quarter lead us to raise our Q4E same-store sales forecast for the core Dunkin’ U.S. business by 60 basis points, to +2.1%, which according to Consensus Metrix data becomes the new sellside high. Sell-side consensus is at +1.4% as of this writing.
Following our data-driven checks, we increase our Q4E 2018 same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +70 basis points, to a new “sell-side high” (according to Consensus Metrix data) of +2.0%. IHOP, the largest family dining concept in the U.S. as determined by domestic systemwide sales, likely benefited from family dining’s robust November 2018 (which will end up as either the best month or the secondbest month during 2018 for family-dining sector same-store sales) and strong start to December 2018.