By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 29, 2021 at 4:06 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Domino’s by +260 basis points, to +10.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +9.4%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for pizza delivery.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 24, 2021 at 4:22 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E to -1.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -19%, -20%, and +45%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to +1.7%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 24, 2021 at 4:16 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s by +450 basis points, to +1.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -3.5%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year casual dining sector trends, (2) Applebee’s resumption of national advertising in early March (which it did not have in January and February), coupled with (3) our belief that the Applebee’s guest in general may be more motivated to act by national advertising than the casual-dining guest in general. Keep in mind that about 48% of Applebee’s guests are under the age of 35, and also Applebee’s relative shift embracing more marketing on social-media platforms — to which guests 35 and under seem to respond relatively better than folks above the age of 35.
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