By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 22, 2021 at 4:40 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1E to -12.0%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -35%, -22%, and +35%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to -7.3%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on February 22, 2021 at 4:41 PM
Dine Brands plans to release its Q4 2020 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, March 2nd. As regards Q4E, we retain our IHOP U.S. same-store sales forecast of -30.0%, but we reduce our Applebee’s U.S. same-store sales projection by -200 basis points, to -7.5%. Dine Brands has previously announced that for the first four weeks of Q4E, IHOP’s same-store sales declined by -24.0%, while Applebee’s same-store sales decreased by -1.9%. Our updated Q4E projections incorporate implicit same-store sales assumptions for the remaining weeks of that quarter of -10% (or so) for Applebee’s and -33% (or so) for IHOP. As a result of all this, our Q4E EPS projection goes down by -2 cents, to $0.68. Our full-year 2020E EPS estimate also goes down by -2 cents (to $2.06).
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on February 8, 2021 at 2:57 PM
With this note, we change our rating on Denny’s (DENN; $17.41) to Neutral (from Buy). This change reflects: (1) lowered EPS estimates for 2021E and 2022E, and (2) a reduced same-store sales forecast for Q1E 2021, despite what appears to be some meaningful help from a calendar-shift effect related to Denny’s 2020 being a 53-week fiscal year, and (3) being mindful of DENN shares’ run-up from their 52-week low of $4.50 (intraday March 19, 2020) to $17.41 as of this past Friday’s market close. (FYI, the stock is also up +18.6% year-to-date.)
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