WEN: The Groundhog Sees… Us Updating Our Wendy’s Forecasts

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 2, 2021 at 3:05 PM

With this note, we raise our full-Q1E Wendy’s U.S. same-store sales forecast by +300 basis points, to +10.0%. According to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus for Q1E as of this writing is at +7.3%.

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MCD (Post-Call): Updating Our 2021E & 2022E EPS Projections

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on January 28, 2021 at 4:14 PM

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported $1.70 in adjusted Q4 EPS, lower than our $1.72 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.77. Fourth-quarter Company-Operated Restaurant Expenses/Sales by CompanyOperated Restaurants came in at 85.2%, worse than our 82.8% estimate.

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Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2021 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4E to -2.4%. While this is a lot better than Q2 2020’s -17.5%, and similar to Q3 2020’s -2.0%, it is somewhat disappointing in the context that as of mid-October we thought there was a 40% chance that Q4 2020 would turn positive. That was not meant to be.

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