Modifying our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E from +1.2% to +1.8%. Our key takeaway: we believe that U.S. quick-service burgers chains in aggregate enjoyed their best same-store sales month during December 2018 since February 2016. The 60 basis-point increase in this index of ours is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the last half of November and all of December.

WEN Adjusting Estimates, and Dreaming of Ghirardelli Chocolate Sauce

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Based on our data-driven checks regarding Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) and the burger sector regarding December, we bump up our Q4E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s North America by +50 basis points to +0.5%. While we still believe Wendy’s had a rough go of it in November (our Wendy’s checks for November 2018 were the worst of any month since those we did for February 2012), December appeared to be a meaningful bounce-back month sequentially — better than we expected. Our Q4E EPS estimate remains at $0.15.

Tidbits re MCD, Applebee’s (owned by DIN), and WEN

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 14, 2019 at 12:00 AM

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), Applebee’s (owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Buy]), and Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral):