WEN (Post-Call) Fundamentally Solid Conf Call Featuring Wendy’s on on Nov. 16th

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 4, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Wendy’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.19, which exceeded our $0.16 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. Drivers of the outperformance included better-than-expected restaurant-level margins (16.9% actual vs. our 15.3% projection and consensus at 15.6%) and G&A/ Revenues (10.5% actual vs. our 11.1% forecast and consensus at 11.0%). Thirdquarter adjusted EBITDA reached $118.8 million, above our $108.8 million estimate and also above consensus of $112.0 million. These results are impressive given the extra marketing spend of about $6.2 million focused on the breakfast daypart that was made in Q3 (and for which we expect ~$6.5 million in Q4E).

WEN Is Wendy’s Overtaking Burger King as the #2 U.S. Burger Concept

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 15, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Based on our math, it looks like Wendy’s is in the process of decisively overtaking Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) as the 2nd-largest burger concept in the U.S., based on domestic systemwide sales.

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on September 29, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3E to +3.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July 2020 and August 2020, as well as our best guess for what September 2020 is bringing us. The approximate monthly figures we use are +2% to +3% for July 2020, +3% to +4% for August 2020, and approximately +6% for September 2020.