SBUX (Post-Call) Fiscal Q1 Healthy, But Coronavirus Afflicting Fiscal Q2

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy) reported fiscal Q1 2020 (= calendar Q4 2019) adjusted EPS of $0.79, surpassing our $0.75 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of 0.76. U.S. same-store sales growth of +6% exceeded our +5% projection and sell-side consensus of +5%. Worldwide same-store sales advanced by +5%, matching our estimate and consensus.

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YUM Updating Our Forecasts Ahead of Yum Brands 8.1 Earnings Release

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Ahead of Yum Brands’ (YUM; Buy) second-quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Thursday, August 1st, we raise our Q2 EPS estimate by $0.01 to $0.89, placing us two cents above sell-side consensus according to Consensus Metrix. Our EPS estimate increase is driven by (1) an update to our Q2E Taco Bell same-store sales projection to +5% (which places us as tied for the high on the sell-side in this respect), from our prior +4%, and versus consensus of +3.7% (please keep in mind that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) taking up our worldwide Q2E KFC same-store sales estimate to +4% (from +3%).

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YUM (Post-Call) Favorable Tax Rate Helps Q1 Adjusted EPS

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.82, surpassing our $0.72 forecast (which had incorporated an anticipated -$0.09 hit from markto-market of Yum’s investment in GrubHub [GRUB; Not Rated]) and the $0.81 consensus number (likely not apples-to-apples with our forecast). Yum notes that “We reflected the change in fair value of our investment in Grubhub by recording $20 million of pre-tax investment expense, resulting in a negative ($0.05) impact in EPS.”

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