By Mark Kalinowski
Published on July 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of Yum Brands’ (YUM; Buy) second-quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Thursday, August 1st, we raise our Q2 EPS estimate by $0.01 to $0.89, placing us two cents above sell-side consensus according to Consensus Metrix. Our EPS estimate increase is driven by (1) an update to our Q2E Taco Bell same-store sales projection to +5% (which places us as tied for the high on the sell-side in this respect), from our prior +4%, and versus consensus of +3.7% (please keep in mind that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) taking up our worldwide Q2E KFC same-store sales estimate to +4% (from +3%).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on July 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Not too long ago, the Taco Bell concept owned by Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) filed its 500+ page Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, based on data provided, our best guess is that during 2018 U.S. companyowned traditional Taco Bells generated average sales of $1,810,474 and median sales of $1,578,925. And, our best guess is that during 2018, U.S. (single-brand) franchised traditional Taco Bells generated average sales of $1,572,481 and median sales of $1,513,671. We maintain our Buy rating on YUM and note the following:
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on July 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With third-party delivery aggregators continuing to grow, providing additional convenience to the consumer, we decided to look at various quarterly data provided by Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated), correlating these data sets with various sectors’ same-store sales (for U.S. chain restaurants). To do this, we used six different Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index sector indices, which are sorted by brand type and based on the weighted-average components from 48 different publiclytraded restaurant concepts. (The weightings are based on each concept’s 2018 U.S. systemwide sales, as measured by Technomic.)
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