Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:57 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1E to +7.3%. This +7.3% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +7% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), flattish for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +23% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020).

YUM: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:50 PM

With this report, we boost our Q1E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +1 percentage point to +7% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +5.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its samestore sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +13% (consensus is at +11.6%).

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 1, 2021 at 4:57 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this mid-to-late March surge appear to include: (1) consumer-related stimulus spending, (2) growing consumer optimism as more folks get vaccinated for Covid-19, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery, including for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) and Wingstop (WING; Not Rated).