Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on September 23, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3E to -29.0%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during July 2020 and August 2020, as well as our best guess for what September 2020 is bringing us. The approximate monthly figures we use are -35% for July 2020, -29% for August 2020, and -25% for September 2020.

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WEN (Post-Call) It is Called the Most Important Meal of the Day, After All…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 5, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Buy, $23.81) reported adjusted EPS of $0.12, matching our recently-raised $0.12 forecast, and coming in one cent above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.11. Although company-operated restaurantlevel margins in Q2 at 14.4% were down year-over-year, they still amounted to a figure above our 12.0% projection and consensus of 11.3%. Wendy’s cites “a higher average check, labor efficiencies, and other dining room closure related efficiencies” as positive factors. Management also pointed to quicker drive-thru speeds.

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CAKE (Post-Call) Brand CAKE Same-Store Sales for July 1-26 about -32%

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 29, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After today’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral, $26.57) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of -$0.87, better than our -$1.00 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$1.09. The diluted share count used in the calculation is about 52.8 million, quite different from our 46.4 million estimate and consensus of 46.5 million. The reason for the higher actual “Represents the impact of assuming the conversion of preferred stock into common stock (8,996,851 shares).” Excluding this effect, adjusted Q2 EPS would have been about -$1.05, according to our calculations. CAKE shares were up by about +4.9% in today’s regular trading session, and may give back a bit of that in tomorrow’s trading.

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