Earlier today (Thursday, April 15th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for March 2021 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +1.8%, with two-year traffic off by -9.4%.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1E to -7.8%. This 7.8% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about -27% for January 2021, -26% for February 2021, and +54% for March (helped by super-easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020… we believe family dining sector same-store sales declined by about -45% during March 2020 as a whole, getting worse as that month progressed).
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E to -1.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -19%, -20%, and +45%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to +1.7%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)