By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 24, 2021 at 4:16 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s by +450 basis points, to +1.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -3.5%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year casual dining sector trends, (2) Applebee’s resumption of national advertising in early March (which it did not have in January and February), coupled with (3) our belief that the Applebee’s guest in general may be more motivated to act by national advertising than the casual-dining guest in general. Keep in mind that about 48% of Applebee’s guests are under the age of 35, and also Applebee’s relative shift embracing more marketing on social-media platforms — to which guests 35 and under seem to respond relatively better than folks above the age of 35.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 15, 2021 at 4:31 PM
Normally, when looking at two-year same-store sales trends, the magnitude of the numbers involved is so low that the two-year rate is calculated by just adding the two years together. The “errors” this simple method produces are negligible. For example, a concept that generates +5.0% same-store sales in the year-ago period, and -5.0% same-store sales in the current period, would have a simple-method two-year number of 0.0%. But the actual math works out to a two-year figure of -0.3%, because the base in the current period is +5.0% larger than what it was in the year-ago period.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on March 2, 2021 at 5:45 PM
Earlier today, Dine Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $0.39, falling short of our recently-reduced $0.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.67.
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