By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 30, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.97, ahead of our $1.91 forecast and sell-side consensus of $1.89. We calculate that the adjusted tax rate was about 19.1%, versus our 24.5% forecast and consensus of 24.4%. If the adjusted tax rate had matched consensus, then by our math adjusted EPS would have come in closer to $1.84. McDonald’s points out the following long-term targets in today’s 8-K:
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we (again) raise our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4E, this time around from +2.1% to +3.1%. This 100 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the second half of November and all of December. (We had previously increased our Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4E from +1.6% to +2.1% back on December 4th.)
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we adjust our Q4E U.S. same-store sales forecast upward by +40 basis points, to +2.6%. In the previous 79 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 72 times (91.1% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 55 times (69.6% of the time).
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