Looking to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 1, 2021 at 9:19 PM

Over the last six months, have published multiple reports suggesting that to learn how Domino’s and Papa John’s might lap very challenging same-store sales comparisons over Q2 2021-Q1 2022, keep an eye on Popeyes — and how Popeyes is lapping its highly challenging same-store sales comparisons during Q4 2020-Q3 2021. Our bottom line remains that Domino’s and Papa John’s could end up lapping these tough numbers better than the Street anticipates. This report updates our thoughts in that regard.

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PZZA (Post-Call): Q1 was Indeed Epic

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on May 6, 2021 at 1:26 PM

Earlier today, Papa John’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.90, well above our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The EPS outperformance appears mainly driven by much better-than-expected same-store sales. The Q1 tax rate of 20.4% was a little more favorable than our 21.0% estimate, as well.

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PZZA: How Does Papa John’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 30, 2021 at 5:05 PM

Papa John’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in early May. How do PZZA shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release?

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