Looking to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 1, 2021 at 9:19 PM

Over the last six months, have published multiple reports suggesting that to learn how Domino’s and Papa John’s might lap very challenging same-store sales comparisons over Q2 2021-Q1 2022, keep an eye on Popeyes — and how Popeyes is lapping its highly challenging same-store sales comparisons during Q4 2020-Q3 2021. Our bottom line remains that Domino’s and Papa John’s could end up lapping these tough numbers better than the Street anticipates. This report updates our thoughts in that regard.

PZZA (Post-Call): Q1 was Indeed Epic

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on May 6, 2021 at 1:26 PM

Earlier today, Papa John’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.90, well above our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The EPS outperformance appears mainly driven by much better-than-expected same-store sales. The Q1 tax rate of 20.4% was a little more favorable than our 21.0% estimate, as well.

PZZA: How Does Papa John’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 30, 2021 at 5:05 PM

Papa John’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in early May. How do PZZA shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release?