YUM: What Concept Could Yum Acquire Next?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 9, 2021 at 4:55 PM

On January 6, 2020, Yum Brands announced its plan to acquire The Habit Burger Grill, which as of full-year 2019 was the 17th-largest burger concept in the U.S. (in terms of domestic systemwide sales, at $450+ million), and in the top 100 overall. The Habit Burger Grill is meaningfully smaller than Yum’s core brands of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. As such, the acquisition of Habit (which closed on March 18, 2020) suggests that: (1) Yum Brands may be generally acquisitive in the future (incidentally, in keeping with current general industry trends), and (2) it isn’t hesitant to make an acquisition that it believes will create shareholder value in the long term, even if the size of that acquisition isn’t all that large relative to its core brands today.

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DPZ (Post-Call): Tougher Year-on-Year Comparisons Getting Closer

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 25, 2021 at 5:53 PM

Earlier today, Domino’s reported Q4 EPS of $3.85, above our $3.50 projection, but a little short of sell-side consensus of $3.88 (according to Consensus Metrix). The $3.85 figure includes a +39 cent boost from 2020’s extra, 53rd accounting week. The next 53-week fiscal year for Domino’s will be 2026.

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PZZA (Post-Call): Will Q1 be “Epic”?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 25, 2021 at 5:49 PM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $102.64) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.40, matching our $0.40 forecast, but coming below sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.45. Keep in mind, special year-end bonuses hampered Q4 EPS by approximately -6 cents, and this may not have been taken into account by some sell-side firms’ estimates.

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