Tuesday July 27, 2021, 20:15:24

CAKE (Post-Call): Margins Coming Back as Guests Come Back

By Mark Kalinowski

After Tuesday’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory reported adjustedQ2 EPS of $0.80, ahead of our $0.63 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.77. Factors contributing to the Q2 EPS outperformance relative to our forecasts include: (1) Cost of Sales/Revenues 22.0% actual vs. 22.5% projected, (2) Labor Expenses/Revenues 35.7% actual vs. 36.1% projected, and (3) D&A/Revenues 2.9% actual vs. 3.3% projected.

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Monday June 21, 2021, 17:00:54

CAKE: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

By Mark Kalinowski

With this note, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for brand Cheesecake Factory to +149.0% (from +142.5%). Our updated +149.0% projection implies a two-year sales figure of about +7.3% for full-Q2E. As of this writing, sell-side consensus is at +145.3% for the one-year number.

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Wednesday April 28, 2021, 13:03:00

CAKE (Post-Call): Off-Premise Holding In as Guests Re-Enter Dining Rooms

By Ryan D. Lavender

After Wednesday’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory reported adjusted Q1 EPS of +$0.20. This surpassed our +$0.05 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.07. Factors behind the outperformance relative to our forecast include: (1) Cost of Sales/Revenues (21.7% actual vs. 22.7% forecasted), (2) Labor Expenses/Revenues (36.6% actual vs. 37.7% projected, and (3) D&A/Revenues (3.5% actual vs. 3.8% estimated), partially offset by (1) Other Operating Expenses/ Revenues (28.2% actual vs. 27.7% forecasted), and (2) G&A/Revenues (7.1% actual vs. 6.8% forecasted).

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