Tuesday January 30, 2024, 19:28:57

SBUX (Post-Call): Grounds for a Cautious Near-Term Outlook

By Mark Kalinowski

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Starbucks reported fiscal Q1 2024 (calendar Q4 2023) adjusted EPS of $0.90, matching our $0.90 forecast, but falling short of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.94.

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Monday January 29, 2024, 07:00:00

SBUX: Adjusting Our Estimates (1/29/2024)

By Mark Kalinowski

We believe that January has proven a tough month as regards same-store sales for a wide swath of the restaurant industry. Based on our conversations with industry contacts, bad weather – lapping a mild winter from one year ago – clearly seems to be the #1 reason behind the challenged January sales trends. As of today, it’s possible that February could prove to be similarly challenged.

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Monday December 11, 2023, 07:00:00

SBUX: Updating Our Forecasts, and…

By Mark Kalinowski

Based on what we believe have been softer-than-expected U.S. same-store sales trends so far in fiscal Q1 2024 (calendar Q1 2023), we reduce our fiscal Q1E North American same-store sales forecast by -2 percentage points, to +5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +6.7%, although keep in mind that Starbucks does not report out its same-store sales numbers past the decimal point.

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