Monday April 28, 2025, 12:09:49

DPZ (Post-Call): Apple-to-Apples Q1 EPS Falls Short of Consensus

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today (Monday), Domino’s reported that its first-quarter EPS amounted to $4.33. This was above our $3.95 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $4.06. But importantly, in its 10-Q out this morning, Domino’s indicates that it “recorded a positive adjustment to the carrying amount of its investment in DPC Dash [Domino’s China; 1405.HK; Not Rated] of $24.0 million in the first quarter of 2025, with the gain recorded in other income in its condensed consolidated statements of income.” Shares of DPC Dash rose by +29.2% over the course of Domino’s Q1. By our math, we calculate that this added roughly +54 cents to Domino’s Q1 EPS, in line with our expectations. Thus, Q1 EPS excluding this factor may have been more like $3.79. Please note that this DPC Dash-related EPS help was not included in our $3.95 Q1E EPS estimate, nor in the $4.06 consensus figure.

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Monday February 24, 2025, 09:56:00

DPZ (Post-Call): Targets +3% U.S. Same-Store Sales Growth for 2025

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today (Monday), Domino’s reported that its Q4 2024 EPS reached $4.89. This was ahead of our $4.75 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $4.87. The Q4 tax rate was 23.3%, more than our 21.0% projection and consensus of 21.5%. Relative to consensus, the heavier tax rate than anticipated subtracted about -12 cents from Domino’s Q4 EPS.

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Monday February 10, 2025, 12:00:08

DPZ (Post-Call): Adjusting Our Forecasts / Q4 Earnings Preview

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today, McDonald’s management remarked on its Q4 earnings conference call that “with a strong US dollar that may continue to strengthen into 2025, we expect from foreign currency to be a full year headwind to 2025 EPS, totaling in the range of $0.20 to $0.30 based on current exchange rates.”

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