Friday May 15, 2020, 00:00:00

DENN (Post-Call) Sunny Side Up

By Mark Kalinowski

After yesterday’s (Thursday, May 14th’s) market close, Denny’s (DENN; Buy, $8.77) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.17, coming in ahead of our $0.11 forecast and sellside consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.07. In fact, the $0.17 adjusted EPS actual for Q1 is better than the $0.15 forecast we had prior to updating our model to (try to) take into account the effects related to COVID-19.

Read more

Tuesday April 7, 2020, 00:00:00

DENN Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski

We lower our U.S. systemwide same-store sales estimates for Denny’s (DENN; Buy) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -10.0 percentage points to -8.0%
Q2E 2020: down by -61.0 percentage points to -60.0%
Q3E 2020: down by -31.5 percentage points to -30.0%
Q4E 2020: down by -11.5 percentage points to -10.0%
Full-year 2020E: down by -28.5 percentage points to -27.5%
Full-year 2021E: up by +11.0 percentage points to +12.5%

Read more

Tuesday February 11, 2020, 00:00:00

DENN (Post-Call) Beyond Refranchising

By Mark Kalinowski

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Denny’s (DENN; Buy) reported adjusted Q4 2019 EPS of $0.23, ahead of our $0.16 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. Factors in the Q4 EPS outperformance include: (1) better-than-expected Product Costs/Company Restaurant Sales (24.3% actual vs. our 24.8% forecast), (2) better-than-expected Payroll & Benefits/Company Restaurant Sales (37.6% actual vs. our 38.1% estimate, (3) better-than-expected Other Operating Costs/Company Restaurant Sales (14.2% actual vs. our 15.5% projection, (4) better-than-expected G&A Expenses/Revenues (13.5% actual vs. our 14.2% estimate), (5) better-than-expected D&A/Revenues (3.7% actual vs. our 4.3% forecast), (6) better-than-expected net interest expense ($3.57 million actual vs. our $4.50 million projection), and (7) a favorable tax rate (20.0% actual vs. our 21.3% estimate).

Read more