Monday June 21, 2021, 16:23:14
By Mark Kalinowski
Based on continued strength in the casual dining segment over April, May, and early June, coupled with what we believe has been a fair amount of national advertising done by Applebee’s as of late, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s to +117.4% (from +90.0%). This implies a two-year projection of +10.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at +103.5%.
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Monday May 17, 2021, 12:42:00
By Ryan D. Lavender
Could Applebee’s sign a large franchise agreement with TravelCenters of America (TA; Not Rated)?
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Wednesday May 5, 2021, 13:22:00
By Ryan D. Lavender
Earlier today, Dine Brands reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.75, well above our $0.80 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.87. We attribute the EPS outperformance relative to our forecast to: (1) a much more favorable tax rate than projection (-6.6% actual vs. 25.0% projected); this helped Q1 EPS by about +46 cents, (2) better-than-expected Cost of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues as a percentage of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues (47.9% actual vs. 51.8% estimated), (3) more favorable than anticipated G&A/Revenue (19.5% actual vs. 20.6% forecasted), and (4) same-store sales than beat expectations for both Applebee’s U.S. and IHOP U.S.
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