Monday November 23, 2020, 00:00:00
Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020.
Tuesday November 17, 2020, 00:00:00
Based on our data-driven checks, we believe that same-store sales for U.S. chain restaurants in the casual dining, family dining, and fine dining segments are all showing sequential deceleration for the first half of November relative to fullOctober. This new trend follows 5-6 consecutive months of either sequentially improving full-service same-store sales (or at least not meaningfully deteriorating sequential same-store sales).
Wednesday October 28, 2020, 00:00:00
Earlier today, Dine Brands — parent company of the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant concepts — reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.80, coming in well ahead of our $0.22 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37. A lowerthan-expected Q3 tax rate helped EPS by roughly +20 cents; we look for the tax rate to be at (or near) 26% in 2021E, but for Q4E we now project a tax rate of 41%. (Management does not quantify what to expect for the Q4 2020 tax rate, but does say to “expect it to be significantly higher than the normal statutory rate… a very high effective tax rate. It is possible that even our updated 41.0% forecast might be too low.)
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