Tuesday December 1, 2020, 00:00:00

Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

By Mark Kalinowski

Both Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.57) and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $80.36) begin lapping very difficult year-over-year domestic same-store sales comparisons in Q2 2021. What can we learn about the recent history of restaurant concepts that have lapped difficult comparisons, in this regard? And, what might Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) teach us about what to expect for Domino’s and Papa John’s domestic same-store sales in 2021? Our bottom line is that Domino’s and Papa John’s could end up lapping these tough numbers better than the Street currently anticipates.

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Monday November 23, 2020, 00:00:00

Large Restaurant Concepts Closing a Lot Less Units than Independent

By Mark Kalinowski

Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020.

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Thursday October 8, 2020, 00:00:00

DPZ (Post-Call) Higher Cheese and G&A Costs Matter

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today, Domino’s reported that its Q3 EPS came to $2.49, short of our $2.79 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.78 (which had been at $2.73 as recently as eight days ago).

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