Thursday April 23, 2020, 00:00:00

DPZ (Post-Call) Investments and Currencies Likely to Slice Q2 EPS

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral, $364.00) reported Q1 EPS of $3.07, well above our $2.35 forecasts and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.32. The earnings beat is largely due to tax rate, which came in at -3.7% (i.e., a helpful tax rate) vs. our 19.0% forecast and consensus of 18.7%. If the Q1 tax rate had been 19.0% (and nothing else in the Q1 income statement was changed), we estimate that Q1 EPS would have been about $2.40 — an earnings beat, but nevertheless not quite as good as what appeared at first glance. On today’s conference call, management commented that the Q1 tax rate reflected “tax benefits on equitybased compensation,” and that it anticipates continued volatility in the tax rate going forward.

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Tuesday March 31, 2020, 00:00:00

DPZ Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski

We adjust our U.S. blended (company-owned and franchised combined) same-store sales estimates for Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -190 basis points to an actual of +1.6%
Q2E 2020: down by -240 basis points to +0.6%
Q3E 2020: down by -190 basis points to +2.1%
Q4E 2020: stays at +3.5%
Full-year 2020E: down by -170 basis points to +2.0%
Full-year 2021E: up by +50 basis points to +3.5%

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Thursday February 20, 2020, 00:00:00

DPZ (Post-Call) Bakes Up a Tasty Investor Response to Q4 Results

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $365.12) reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $3.13, coming in ahead of our $2.99 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.97.

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