Wednesday October 19, 2022, 07:00:00

MCD: Franchisee Survey Part One, Updating Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski

McDonald’s plans to release its Q3 earnings before the market open on Thursday, October 27th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. (Look for part two, which will discuss McDonald’s potential sales performance in a possible 2023 recession, either later this week or early next week.)

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Monday October 17, 2022, 07:00:00

MCD: McDonald’s Top 25 Markets for 2022E Operating Profits

By Mark Kalinowski

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2022E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $10.543 billion.

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Monday August 15, 2022, 07:00:00

MCD: Building a Happy Meal for Investors

By Mark Kalinowski

There are multiple potential positives regarding McDonald’s U.S. business that the Street may not be currently appreciating. For example, McDonald’s reported its Q2 earnings on July 26th, but did not quantify (or otherwise meaningfully comment on) July same-store sales trends at that time. Subsequent to that date, though, Wendy’s (WEN; Buy, $21.40) noted on its August 10th conference call that “we expect a significant step-up in one-year same-restaurant sales in the back half of the year, and our results through July are accelerating as planned.” In addition, on August 11th, the largest Burger King franchisee in the U.S., Carrols (TAST; Not Rated) – which operates over 1,000 Burger King restaurants – remarked that “During the second quarter, comparable restaurant sales at our Burger King restaurants increased 2.8% against a robust 12.6% comparison from the prior year period. The monthly sales trend demonstrated building momentum, with negative comparable restaurant sales in April as we lapped the end of the stimulus payments benefit, followed by mid-single digit growth in both May and June which has extended into July.” We believe that these trends are indicative of a good July for the U.S. quick-service burger sector in general, including segment leader McDonald’s (which we believe outperformed the sector to some degree).

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