Tuesday July 9, 2019, 00:00:00

MCD 2019 Franchise Disclosure Document Review for McDonald’s

By Mark Kalinowski

Not too long ago, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) filed its 400+ page Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, for the 11,761 domestic traditional McDonald’s restaurants that were open for at least one year as of December 31, 2018, their median sales volume was $2,764,000 during 2018, with approximately 58% of them attaining sales in excess of $2,600,000. This compares with the 12,169 domestic traditional McDonald’s restaurants that were open for at least one year as of December 31, 2017, and their median sales volume of $2,703,000 during 2017, with approximately 55% of them attaining sales in excess of $2,600,000. In addition, as of 12/31/18, McDonald’s anticipated opening about 50 new restaurants in the U.S. during 2019 (nearly all of them franchised), but closing approximately 105 restaurants in the U.S. during 2019. This anticipated net change of about -55 for 2019 compares with actual net changes of -117 for 2018, -124 for 2017, -98 for 2016, and -93 for 2015.

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Monday May 13, 2019, 00:00:00

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski

With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E by +100 basis points to +3.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019.

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Sunday May 12, 2019, 00:00:00

MCD Updating our Forecasts 2019

By Mark Kalinowski

Given our latest data-driven checks, we raise our Q2E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. by 60 basis points, to +4.6%, placing us 60 basis points above consensus (according to Consensus Metrix data) and also as the second-highest forecast in this regard on the sell-side. We believe McDonald’s continues to benefit for a number of reasons, some of which we pointed to in our May 6th report “April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…” — we encourage you to read that report if you have not yet done so.

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