Monday June 14, 2021, 16:46:37

PZZA: The Bull and Bear Cases on Papa John’s

By Mark Kalinowski

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $101.83). While we maintain our Buy rating on PZZA — it continues to be our top small/mid-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in PZZA to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is.

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Thursday May 27, 2021, 12:22:00

PZZA: Sometimes Dough Rises, Sometimes EPS Estimates Do Too

By Ryan D. Lavender

Based on Papa John’s recent announcement that it will repurchase/convert all the convertible preferred stock owned by a strategic investor, we raise our full-year 2021E EPS estimate by +15 cents, to $3.00. And, based on this higher anticipated base of earnings coming off of this year — as well as net EPS benefits from the repurchase/conversion in Q1 2022 and the first half of Q2 2022, that did not accrue in Q1 2021 and the first half of Q2 2021 — we take up our full-year 2022E EPS forecast by +15 cents, to $3.40.

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Thursday May 6, 2021, 13:26:00

PZZA (Post-Call): Q1 was Indeed Epic

By Ryan D. Lavender

Earlier today, Papa John’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.90, well above our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The EPS outperformance appears mainly driven by much better-than-expected same-store sales. The Q1 tax rate of 20.4% was a little more favorable than our 21.0% estimate, as well.

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