Monday July 6, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Is it possible the Street is underestimating sales and market-share opportunities in 2021 for the larger publicly-traded quick-service pizza concepts? We believe that Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $374.09) and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $83.66) both remain well-positioned for the future for multiple reasons, but this particular factor may be underappreciated. Incidentally, it’s possible for Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $86.55]) to benefit from the same issue, although Pizza Hut will over the short-to-medium term likely have to deal with net unit closures, limiting to some meaningful degree its opportunity to take market share from other pizza outlets’ closures.
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Wednesday May 27, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.32) reported that its North American same-store sales rose by a remarkable +33.5% for the April 27-May 24 timeframe. This comes on the heels of the previously-announced +26.9% for March 30-April 26, suggesting that Q2-to-date North American same-store sales are up by roughly +30% through May 24th. We raise our full-Q2E forecast by +900 basis points to +28.0%, which includes implied projections for May 25-June 28 of +20% for company-owned stores and +25% for franchised outlets.
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Tuesday May 19, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Get ready for more innovation from Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $78.11) — we have learned that Papa John’s U.S. is testing several varieties of “Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas” in at least one test market (Indianapolis). We believe there is a chance that one or more stuffed crust pizzas could receive a nationwide rollout by the end of 2020.
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