Thursday May 6, 2021, 13:26:00

PZZA (Post-Call): Q1 was Indeed Epic

By Ryan D. Lavender

Earlier today, Papa John’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.90, well above our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The EPS outperformance appears mainly driven by much better-than-expected same-store sales. The Q1 tax rate of 20.4% was a little more favorable than our 21.0% estimate, as well.

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Tuesday March 30, 2021, 17:05:00

PZZA: How Does Papa John’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender

Papa John’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in early May. How do PZZA shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release?

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Monday March 29, 2021, 16:12:00

PZZA: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

By Ryan D. Lavender

With this report, we increase our Q1E North American same-store sales forecast for Papa John’s by +130 basis points, to +13.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +12.9%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for pizza delivery.

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