Monday May 13, 2019, 00:00:00
With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E by +100 basis points to +3.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019.
Friday May 10, 2019, 00:00:00
African Swine Fever (ASF) is spreading rapidly not only in China — where it seems as many hogs have been culled from herds in that country as there are born in the entire United States in any given year — but also in other parts of Asia, not to mention parts of Europe. Based on our conversations with suppliers to the restaurant industry, and also with privately-held restaurant companies, we believe that commodity-cost risks over the next 1-3 years from proteins may be higher than the Street currently anticipates. The sources of this are many, including: (1) uncertainty regarding just how massive the ASF issue is in China, (2) the time it will take to replenish swine supplies in China — the time from gestation to slaughter is typically more than 30 months, and (3) the not-zero possibility that ASF could make its way to the United States, although efforts are being made on multiple fronts to prevent that from happening. As many involved note, the situation regarding ASF remains fast-moving and difficult to quantify.
Thursday May 9, 2019, 00:00:00
Earlier today (Thursday, May 9th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for April 2019 declined by -0.4%, with same-store traffic down by -3.5%. The -0.4% showing for April 2019 marks the second-worst showing of the last 12 months, and marks meaningful sequential deceleration from the +1.2% figure attained in March 2019.
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