Thursday December 18, 2025, 09:16:11
By Mark Kalinowski
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in November — sequentially down by a pretty big -80 basis points since September’s +2.7%. (Due to the recent government shutdown, data for October was not published.) This +1.9% number for November compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in November (sequentially the same as September’s +3.7%). This marks the 32nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
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Tuesday December 16, 2025, 11:37:56
By Mark Kalinowski
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in October 2025. This is sequentially down by -20 basis points from September 2025’s 56.5% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.
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Thursday December 4, 2025, 07:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
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