Tuesday July 27, 2021, 18:54:16

SBUX (Post-Call): A Crisp Quarter, Although Shares Have Been Frothy as of Late

By Mark Kalinowski

After Tuesday’s market close, Starbucks reported fiscal Q3 (calendar Q2) adjusted EPS of $1.01, easily topping our $0.79 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.78.

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Tuesday July 6, 2021, 16:23:48

SBUX: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski

Given better-than-expected retail foodservice sales in general during calendar Q2 — Starbucks’ fiscal Q3 — we raise our fiscal Q3E Americas same-store sales forecast to +78% (from +72%). Given the fiscal Q3 2020 figure of -41%, our updated +78% projection implies a two-year number of about +5%. We would also note that embedded within our updated Americas forecast for fiscal Q3E is a U.S. same-store sales projection of +83% (up from +77%).

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Tuesday April 27, 2021, 16:51:00

SBUX (Post-Call): Percolating Sales, Earnings, and Loyalty Program Growth

By Ryan D. Lavender

Earlier today, Starbucks reported fiscal Q2 (calendar Q1) adjusted EPS of $0.62, surpassing our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.53. Starbucks bumps up its fiscal 2021 target range for adjusted EPS to $2.90-$3.00 (from $2.70-$2.90). Sources of the fiscal Q2 EPS outperformance include: (1) better-than-expected Product and Distribution Costs/Total Net Revenues (29.9% actual vs. 31.2% estimated), (2) better-than-expected Store Operating Expenses/Company-Operated Store Revenues (49.9% actual vs. 51.8% forecasted), and (3) D&A/Total Net Revenues (4.6% actual vs. 4.9% projected).

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