Wednesday November 7, 2018, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Please note that this report is best read in conjunction with the report we published yesterday, “WEN (Pre-Call): Q3 Same-Store Sales a Little Frosty.” (One correction we’d like to make about that report: our Q3E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s was actually +1.0%, not +1.5% — we had actually lowered our forecast to +1.0% in our October 4th report “WEN: Our Data-Driven Checks Regarding September Sales Suggest…” Note that this does not change the Kalinowski Forecast track record over Q2 2011-Q3 2018 of being within 100 basis points of the same-store sales number Wendy’s reports 70.0% of the time, and being within 200 basis points of the samestore sales number Wendy’s reports 96.7% of the time.)
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Tuesday November 6, 2018, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
After today’s market close, Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.17, above our $0.15 forecast and the sell-side consensus (as measured by Consensus Metrix) of $0.15. We attribute the EPS beat to a lower-than-expected adjusted tax rate (15.0% vs. our 24.0% forecast and consensus of 23.7%).
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Sunday November 4, 2018, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E from +2.0% to +1.6%. This 40 basis-point decrease is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October. In the last eight months, October 2018 looks to have been the thirdweakest of these eight for the burger segment. We point out that we still have November and December to go as regards Q4 as a whole.
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