Monday March 29, 2021, 16:12:00
By Ryan D. Lavender
With this report, we increase our Q1E North American same-store sales forecast for Papa John’s by +130 basis points, to +13.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +12.9%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for pizza delivery.
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Thursday February 25, 2021, 17:49:00
By Ryan D. Lavender
Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $102.64) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.40, matching our $0.40 forecast, but coming below sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.45. Keep in mind, special year-end bonuses hampered Q4 EPS by approximately -6 cents, and this may not have been taken into account by some sell-side firms’ estimates.
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Monday January 11, 2021, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E to +12.1%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. We believe that December same-store sales were likely the best month of the quarter, while October was helped by arguably the busiest Halloween ever for pizza delivery/carryout.
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