Monday August 17, 2020, 00:00:00

PZZA Opportunities to Grow the U.S. Franchisee Base (and Refranchise)

By Mark Kalinowski

Quick-service pizza sector same-store sales have performed the best of any sector in the U.S. restaurant industry the last few months. This likely means that some large franchise companies who seek opportunities within the restaurant industry may examine possibilities in the pizza sector. Carryout/delivery pizza plays very well in a world uncertain about how COVID-19 and related issues will impact the future. On top of that, not only has Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $96.15) put up great domestic same-store sales numbers the last few months — up by +30.3% for June 29-July 26, of example — it also seeks franchisees. In this report, we examine some possible franchised companies that are not currently in the pizza space, but could join in under the right circumstances. All in all, we believe that Papa John’s is poised to reward shareholders by (1) improving the quality of its franchisee base, and (2) at some point engaging in meaningful refranchising activity, which could lead to a higher valuation multiple for PZZA shares.

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Thursday August 6, 2020, 00:00:00

PZZA (Post-Call) A Shaq-tastic Q2 and July

By Mark Kalinowski

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $99.14) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.48, coming in meaningfully above our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.44. We had been concerned that costs related to franchisee assistance — which amounted to a -$0.12 hit in Q2 — would hold back Q2 earnings, but the strength of the business (North American same-store sales up a previously-announced +28.0%) more than made up for this. Built into our Q2E estimate heading into today was an EPS hit of -18 cents related to franchisee assistance, so even specific to Q2, this came in +6 cents better than we expected.

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Thursday July 9, 2020, 00:00:00

PZZA The Bull and Bear Case on Papa John’s

By Mark Kalinowski

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $88.26). While we maintain our Buy rating on PZZA — it continues to be our top small/mid-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in PZZA to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is.

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