Friday October 24, 2025, 08:58:50

Restaurant Inflation Gap to Grocery Inflation for September 2025 is the Smallest Since March 2023

By Mark Kalinowski

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in September — sequentially the same as higher than August’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for September compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in September (sequentially -20 basis points below August’s +3.9%) This marks the 30th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is tied for the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

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Thursday October 9, 2025, 07:00:00

Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q3 Shows Signs of Sequential Improvement

By Mark Kalinowski

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2025 to +1.6%. While this isn’t a great quarter by any stretch of the imagination, it is nevertheless the best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. Has the industry — slowly — finally turned the corner?

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Wednesday October 8, 2025, 07:00:00

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (10/8/2025)

By Mark Kalinowski

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +1.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2025 is at +20.4%. Our +1.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

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