Wednesday September 17, 2025, 07:00:00

Burger King: Tracking its Value Meal Prices Over the Last Few Weeks

By Mark Kalinowski

In recent days, we have published notes examining the pricing changes at McDonald’s and Wendy’s for combo meals. Today, we look at Burger King’s recent pricing changes for combo meals.

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Tuesday September 16, 2025, 09:21:05

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Ties the All-Time Monthly Record

By Mark Kalinowski

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in August 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from July 2025’s 56.4% market share. The 56.5% figure also ties the all-time monthly record, also set in May 2025 and June 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q2 2025 — and Q3 2025 so far — appear to have left quite a bit to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

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Thursday September 11, 2025, 08:53:20

Restaurant Inflation Gap to Grocery Inflation Shrinks to Smallest Since March 2023

By Mark Kalinowski

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in July — sequentially +50 basis points higher than July’s +2.2%. This +2.7% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in July (sequentially the same as July’s +3.9%) This marks the 29th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

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