Tuesday January 22, 2019, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Ahead of Starbucks’ (SBUX; Neutral) planned fiscal Q1 2019 (calendar Q4 2018) earnings release planned for after the market close this Thursday (January 24th), we raise our fiscal Q1 same-store sales forecast for the Americas (and the U.S.) by one percentage point, to +4%, placing us above sell-side consensus (as measured by Consensus Metrix) of +3%. The raised forecast has the effect of increasing our Q1E EPS projection by one cent, to $0.66, also placing us one cent above sell-side consensus of $0.65. Our full-fiscal 2019E EPS forecast goes up by $0.01, to $2.66. Given this slightly higher anticipated base of earnings coming off of fiscal 2019, our fiscal 2020E EPS estimate rises by $0.01, to $3.01. We reiterate our Neutral rating on SBUX.
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Monday January 7, 2019, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral), and Taco Bell (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Buy]):
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Thursday December 13, 2018, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Earlier today, Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral) hosted its every-two-years Analyst Meeting, this time around in New York City. In our view, the strategic path that Starbucks laid out — under the “Growth at Scale” theme — looks reasonable to us. Also, on the positive side, the transition from Starbucks being “founder-led” to “founder-inspired” — always a tricky thing to navigate for pretty much any company of size — seems to have gone relatively well, all things considered (meaning, look at examples of companies that didn’t get that transition right). On the risk side of the equation, some of the most challenging risks are to a meaningful degree outside of Starbucks’ control, with Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral] recently launching its revamped espresso platform nationwide in the U.S.), and privately-held Luckin Coffee — which ended 2017 with zero stores in China — now at 1,700+ units in that key market (and growing rapidly). That said, Starbucks understands that its brand is different from others in the coffee marketplace, including (but not limited to) Dunkin’ and Luckin Coffee, and will seek to further differentiate the Starbucks brand going forward. We tweak our fiscal 2019E and fiscal 2020E EPS estimates downward by $0.01 each, to $2.65 and $3.00, respectively. We reiterate our Neutral rating on SBUX, and note the following:
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