Thursday April 9, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
With this report, we lower our full-fiscal 2020E EPS estimate for Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $71.57) by -4 cents, to $1.91. (Our full-fiscal 2021E EPS estimate remains at $2.90.) The four-cent reduction in our fiscal 2020E EPS forecast reflects (1) Starbucks estimating that its adjusted EPS for fiscal Q2 (January-March) will be about $0.32 — we move up our fiscal Q2E projection by +1 cent to $0.32, and (2) lowering our fiscal Q3E EPS estimate by -5 cents, to $0.15.
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Thursday April 2, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
We lower our U.S. (and Americas, of which the U.S. makes up the vast majority) samestore sales estimates for Starbucks (SBUX; Buy) as follows:
Fiscal Q1A 2020: already reported at +6%
Fiscal Q2E 2020: down by -10 percentage points to -5%
Fiscal Q3E 2020: down by -32 percentage points to -30%
Fiscal Q4E 2020: down by -12 percentage points to -10%
Fiscal full-year 2020E: down by -14 percentage points to -10%
Fiscal full-year 2021E: up by +7 percentage points to +10%
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Thursday March 5, 2020, 00:00:00
By Mark Kalinowski
Earlier today, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $76.19) filed an 8-K which quantified some of the potential impacts on its business from coronavirus in China (a company-owned market for Starbucks). As a result, we lower our full-fiscal 2020E EPS estimate by -23 cents, to $2.80. And, given this lower base of anticipated earnings coming off of 2020, partially offset by 2021 potentially lapping some easy comparisons, we take down our full fiscal 2021E EPS forecast by -17 cents, to $3.25. We note the following:
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