Coverage

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in March — sequentially +50 basis points higher than February’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially up by +10 basis points from February’s +3.7%). This marks the 24th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to down by -0.9%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +3.8%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2025 is at +28.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +4.2%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +29.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its free-standing & drive-thru restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is looking like that target might be met in the not-too-distant future.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to 0.0%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2025 is at +18.2%. Our 0.0% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.