Coverage

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in March — sequentially down by -50 basis points since February’s +2.4%. This +1.9% number for March compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially down by -10 basis points from February’s +3.9%). This marks the 36th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2026 to +2.2%. Glass-half full, this marks the best quarter for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard since a +3.6% number was posted back in Q4 2023. Glass-half empty, the +2.2% figure for Q1 2026 is still below the long-term (Q1 2015-Q4 2025) quarterly median of +2.6%. Things are getting better, but not rapidly so.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to +0.1%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2026 is at +15.7%. Our +0.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +3.5%. On a pre-pandemic basis (compared to Q1 2019), the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2026 is at +35.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to down by -1.0%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2026 is at +7.8%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.