Coverage

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2024 is at +44.7%. This +44.7% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +0.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +4.7%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in November 2024. This is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was less than +10 basis points, marking the lowest year-over-year rise in share for the restaurant industry since February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.6% in November — sequentially up by +50 basis points from October’s +1.1%. This +1.6% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from October’s +3.8%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in November 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.